Those who know me - know me as a system slave, not deviating from my thoroughly researched patterns of long term profitability. Yes, maybe I have turned into a more or less robot like being, less prone to succumb to feeling and intuition.
Put the time 25 years back and I was - well, already a stats and trend man - but more impulsive on a daily basis. But I ran a bookie-business in the 90s, so I was already rid of the worst compulsiveness of backing anything !

However, of course I still have that gambling instinct, as most of us need to react to the familiar feeling of odds too good to go.
So with the English football season kicking off last saturday I was suddenly out of summer holiday mode. I just had to follow some more or less qualified hunches. And what hunches they turned out to be…

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England means nostalgy

It’s always something beautifully nostalgic with the English league football saturdays, as all Norwegians growing up in the 70s were exposed to a live game on telly from England every weekend. Yes, exposed.
To a Norwegian teenage boy there wasn’t much to do neither in front of a screen nor outdoors during our winters, I tell you that for sure. The only TV-channel we had actually managed to produce a match - usually from the Midlands - at a time of day not known for TV at all, and it also contained running scores from the other 11 matches featured on the pools-coupon. That made my week.
Someone find that going to church on Sundays is a necessity, but most Scandinavian boys like me found our belief and redemption fulfilled in front of telly on a Saturday afternoon.

This way most young lads in Norway found their passion and relief during winter. That’s also the reason why Norwegian supporter clubs of English teams, from Liverpool to Rochdale - have so many members. It’s love on the border of religion.

Always looking forward to fridays, when the local paper revealed the saturday match with an article presenting the two teams. Then growing old enough for betting, the dedication and compulsion was complete.
This was actually the only league football on telly back then. Apart from this, only the Norwegian cup final and a few internationals were televised. The quality was so poor that we always looked forward to November and English football.
So imagine our shock and disillusion when Norway beat England in a world cup qualifier in 1981… Such a thing wasn’t supposed to happen !

Pure luck or what…

Sorry about the nostalgic digression, I really was about to romance about good old hunch-based betting luck, but couldn’t help it…

What happened on Saturday was that I got a “wake up call” from a good friend, otherwise I wouldn’t have noticed that England outside of Premier league was back on the stage. So after hanging up I had 15 minutes to refocus to the fixtures across four leagues, and see what entertainment I might have in store.

First round… it’s always about promoted or relegated teams to me.
Two games immediately struck me.
Already back in May I looked forward to see Plymouth back in the Championship, by following up on their incredible performances from last season. Not so much triggered by how they overcame their tight home games last season, but my philosophy about newly promoted teams and their enthusiasm- being that energy beats quality.
I remember my only presence at Home Park, in March 1996. Plymouth won 1-0 vs Northampton in a rather dull game. I was the neutral spectator just watching, and yawning. And I was alone.
Well I often felt as if I were the fifth wheel in many of lifes’ circumstances, but how about this one: Me turning up made the official attendance 7001…
By the way, I read somewhere this summer that if you would pick just one team in the football world to back for all home games last season, Plymouth Argyle was the best of them - the ROI-winner.

More accidentally I noticed that newcomer Wrexham played relegated team MK Dons. Being two leagues apart last season you would not expect these odds… But instead of trying to understand the hype I just put a small stake on MK Dons to win straight. As if that wasn’t lucky enough, I commemorated my observations of some of Wrexhams home games last seasons turning into goal orgies.
So I even put a small stake on the over 5,5 goals option in case there would be an energy overflow - and leakage - in their football league comeback.

These may be hunches then and there, but are still a part of the ProFooty “memory data bank”, appreciating newcomers but also going against hypes, and intuitively connecting some teams to wild goal sprees.

Humbly assessing my luck after the games, I noticed that most of them didn’t finish until after James Alexander Gordon would have started to read the classifieds.
His soul rest in peace, I guess he would not have appreciated this post modern way of calculating injury time.
An expression I guess that is already going out of football terminology ( like womens world cup) to be replaced with the less offensive “added time”.

While enjoying myself during the two hours of England returning to footy business, my only football channel showed Blackburn - WBA in the background. Pure nostalgy. I rarely look up from my computer, never taking part in the action outside of the two boxes.

Don’t underestimate h2h

Happy about the fresh euros added to my Sportmarket account I noticed the channel had turned from Ewood to Rugby Park in Kilmarnock, to show their opening game of the season vs Rangers.
Wow !
My favorite h2h speculation game in Scotland ! Could I ride my luck a bit further ?
With the game already started and Rangers expectedly in possession, I got down some of my winnings on Kilmarnock, even if memorizing I was not successful on their last encounter some 7 months ago (right, it was a ProFooty bet...)
But how many of their home games vs Rangers do you need to profit from @10 ?
And would you believe it; this time they held on to their lead again.
Just look up the history of this encounter at Rugby Park, and never say a bad thing about the significance of h2h to me.

So the Premier League will complete the new season in a few days. With all its overpaid actors, scandalous money and ownerships in general. Not interested unless it comes down to a bet.
And it will. Luton will win a game or two at high odds early in the season, and I will be organized on it way before kickoff. No wake up call needed.
Brighton and Chelsea, mind the gap !

But I don’t need that league on my telly. I rather stick to the charming lower leagues for entertainment on Saturdays, on a channel I don’t pay for, and not contributing to the money circus.

New services

So this is what a (lucky) Saturday in early August could be like for me, when only a couple of Brazilian games qualify with my new service ProFootyLays. Which is fully booked I’m afraid, so you won’t find that one on Gumroad.
In a week or two I start a service called DNB bank, which is draw-no-bet home wins that from research over a period of 7-10 years provide an estimated 15% ROI. Also, it looks reasonable from psychology and motivation that they are profiting, and that’s why I initially detected it.
Being a completely new service I will offer a whole month of trial for you to judge if it suits your betting portfolio, and the price will be 50 - 63 euro a month.

So how about your own research ? Anything new ? Share your thoughts if you like.

To me the upcoming season is full of investment opportunities in the sportsbetting market, and I hope you find likewise in your way.
Happy season !

Yours
Geir/ProFooty

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